City Ranch, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

409
FXUS66 KLOX 290122
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
522 PM PST Fri Nov 28 2025

.SYNOPSIS...28/519 PM.

Dry weather will continue at least through next Tuesday. A
cooling trend will continue through the weekend as onshore flow
returns. Gusty Santa Ana winds are possible Monday with warmer
temperatures. Then turning cooler Tuesday followed by a chance of
rain Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-MON)...28/116 PM.

Light onshore flow has returned and temperatures have adjusted
accordingly. Coast and valleys are 5-15 degrees cooler and the
Antelope Valley is 10-15 degrees warmer. The marine layer will
deepen slightly tonight and may sneak into some of the lower
coastal valleys later on. A little more cooling most areas as well
but still near to slightly above normal. Sunday should be almost a
carbon copy of Saturday.

Ensemble models continue to strongly favor at least a light to
moderate Santa Ana pattern Monday and now the deterministic models
are starting to catch on. The NAM is forecasting a -5.1mb LAX/DAG
gradient Monday morning and the ensembles have been inching closer
to the 6mb range. The big difference with this event is temps
aloft are much colder so highs will be at least 10 degrees cooler
than with the most recent Santa Ana. Current forecast highs are
likely a little too cool for coast and valleys which is common a
few days out. If the pattern holds tomorrow and the NBM isn`t
catching on then highs will likely need to be adjusted upward at
least 5 degrees. Given the gradients and better support aloft to
the tune of 40kt at 950mb this event will more than likely
generate some advisory level winds Monday across the usual Santa
Ana favored areas of LA/Ventura Counties and possibly the Santa
Lucias as well.

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...28/128 PM.

Monday`s Santa Ana event will quickly shift back onshore Tuesday
and could see some patchy dense fog reaching the beaches.
Otherwise, a quiet day with temperatures near normal with
generally sunny skies.

There is a chance of light rain across the area Wednesday as
another inside slider trough drops into the Great Basin. Ensemble
solutions are still exhibiting a wide range of possibilities but
at least half of the solutions indicate some light rain
developing. It could also be dry with some light offshore winds,
but the trends favor the light rain scenario. Most of the
solutions show rain amounts under a half inch, and mostly under a
quarter inch.

Most of the ensembles show rain ending Wednesday night but there
area a few ensembles that keep the upper low close by with
lingering showers into Thursday. Most, though favor a dry day
Thursday and Friday with warming temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...29/0118Z.

At 0009Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 600 ft deep. The top of the
inversion was near 1500 ft with a temperature of 18 C.

High confidence in VFR TAFs for KPMD & KWJF.

Low confidence in the coastal TAFs and low to moderate confidence
in the valley TAFs. The timing of CIG/VSBY restrictions may be
off by at least +/- 3 hours and flight cats may be off by one or
two when restrictions are present.

There is a 30% chance of V/LIFR conditions at KPRB from 13Z to 17Z
Sat. 20-30% chance of LIFR CIGs at KSMX from 10Z to 16Z Sat.
Low confidence for KSBA where arrival of CIGs could be off +/- 4
hours with a 30% CIGs do not arrive or remain intermittent in
nature. KBUR and KVNY have a 20-30% chance of IFR or lower conds
between 08Z to 16Z Sat.

KLAX...Low to moderate confidence in the 00Z TAF. Arrival of IFR
CIGs 005-009 with 3SM to 4SM VSBYs may be off +/- 3 hours from
forecast of 06Z. 10-20% chance conds drop to LIFR overnight.
Moderate confidence in VFR conditions to return after 16Z Sat. No
significant east wind component expected.

KBUR...Low to moderate confidence in the 00Z TAF. There is a 20-30%
chance of IFR to LIFR conditions from 08Z to 16Z Sat.

&&

.MARINE...28/109 PM.

A coastal jet is currently impacting the northern outer waters
with Small Craft Advisory (SCA) winds. Although Seas are below
SCA levels currently, it is expected to peak late this afternoon
into the evening hours with borderline SCA seas possible 30NM
from central coast shoreline (PZZ670). These conditions could
spread into northwestern portions of PZZ673 at times especially
this afternoon and evening. Hazardous conditions for small craft
should last through early Saturday morning. Then, conditions will
struggle to meet SCA criteria even beyond 30NM from shore through
Sunday morning. Chances do increase Sunday afternoon and evening,
but still looks unimpressive and borderline at best. Conditions
are expected to remain below SCA levels across all inner waters
through the weekend.

Low to moderate chances for borderline SCA conditions across the
Outer Waters beyond 30NM from shore and low to very low chances
elsewhere across coastal waters Monday through Wednesday. However,
there could be some SCA winds nearshore from Ventura to Malibu on
Monday. Low confidence for another round of offshore winds on Wed.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PST Saturday for
      zone 670. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...Ciliberti
MARINE...Black
SYNOPSIS...MW/CC

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox